The 2011-based interim household projections - a data distraction?

The current reform of the planning system places new pressures on local authorities to establish and objectively evidence locally generated housing requirement policies as the Regional Planning tier is steadily revoked. Local Plan Examinations and Appeals show that the required evidence to replace these publically examined targets and its interpretation into policy represents an area of considerable debate and challenge.

A crowded data environment

The NPPF stresses the importance of referencing household and population projections as a starting point in any assessment of the full housing needs of an area. The new 2011-based interim household projections, alongside its sister dataset the 2011-based interim population projections, represent another addition to an already crowded data environment that policy planners and local politicians are tasked with utilising in the preparation of policy.

The new projections represent the DCLG’s attempt to start to integrate the results of the 2011 Census. The full implications of this vast data repository are stillnot fully utilised. The result is a ‘half-way’ house position which does not bear up to close scrutiny.

The shortcomings of this data

The amount of weight that should be given to the headline findings of this dataset (not least the reduced level of projected household formation by some 24,900 households nationally compared to the previous 2008 based projections), is indicated by their ‘interim’ status. The projections only provide a ten year horizon, 2011 to 2021. This represents a challenge for providing longer term estimates of demand required to match a Local Plan minimum period of 15 years.

We must wait another year for the release of the 2012-based official projections which will include the usual 25 year projection horizon. These projections will integrate new mid-year estimate datasets from the ONS as well as more detailed inputs from the 2011 Census. This will serve to create a concerning ‘information gap’ in the period in between. It appears that local policy planners are now expected to use a series of projection figures to evidence housing need which are in danger of becoming immediately out-of-date.

To make matters more difficult

For those authorities looking to set new housing targets, this set of official projections, as with all ONS/DCLG publications, are trend based. They serve to present a ‘future’ that assumes that the underlying drivers of the housing market continue to reflect current and recent market conditions. The base date of the projections, and indeed the Census year, follows a sustained recessionary period that has had a marked impact on the fluidity of the housing market, levels of transactions and the ability of new households to form, not least as a result of unprecedented low levels of housing completions.

The HBF states: “the local planning process tends to become a vicious circle: planning has constrained housing supply for the last two decades, which has suppressed household formation, which is reflected in the household projections, which are a key input into local authority planning for future housing supply”. The rapid contraction of the mortgage market in 2008 has had a disproportionate impact on First Time Buyers and this is reflected in the household projection dataset. This significantly assumes the reduction of the formation of new households where the head of household is aged 25–34 (23,000 new households per annum are projected to form in the new 2011-based projections contrasted against 49,000 within the 2008-based SNHP dataset). As the HBF notes, this is reflected in other ONS datasets that point to an increase in the number of young people forced to live at home with parents.

Returning the economy to health

Following the guidance set within the NPPF (paragraph 158), emerging Local Plan policies are required to demonstrate that the assessment of and strategies for housing, employment and other uses are integrated, as well as taking full account of relevant market and economic signals. The Government’s policy agenda is strongly oriented at addressing current housing market issues to ensure a return to more buoyant economic conditions seen prior to the ‘credit crunch’.

Market sentiment remains positive regarding the potential impact of the ‘Help to Buy’ scheme introduced in 2013 to assist in addressing affordability challenges. In addition the Budget measures are principally aimed at driving employment growth rather than sustaining a leakage of employment from the UK as seen over the period of time upon which the latest projections are based.

It is vital that the positive perspective presented by the potential success of the implementation of national policy is reflected on and considered in the setting of long-term planning policies. These policies have the potential to further facilitate and support these ambitions, but equally if poorly considered could serve to stifle the grassroots of growth in the creation of a balanced housing infrastructure to serve future generations.

TArget - a bespoke take on projections

In light of the identified limitations of the available statistical projections, it is important that alternative projections of growth are explored and evaluated in order to inform positive planning strategies which reflect the tests of soundness within the NPPF.

The Turley Associates housing requirement toolkit ‘TArget’ provides the ability to develop bespoke housing requirement projections, which take a forward looking perspective rather than simply a trend based position. The modelling integrates the latest official datasets published by the ONS and DCLG alongside locally sourced datasets and policy considerations. We can offer initial scoping advice as well as the preparation of NPPF compliant housing requirement evident to match each client’s individual needs.

Antony Pollard
0161 233 7676
[email protected]

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A data distraction